The Island has been Lost

Fri, 30 Apr 2010 07:31:44 -0500

Remember how the island on Lost vanished, only to reappear somewhere else? Well, that's what's about to happen here. The phrase "Island of Doubt" has served its purpose, and is being replaced. This is the last post that will appear on that title.

The new blog "Class M," can be found here. It's still part of the ScienceBlogs collective. Its mission is to explore the science bearing on the Earth as a planet suitable for human habitation, which is pretty much what the Island of Doubt came to be all about. The only difference is I will no longer stray into unrelated matters.

My apologies to those will feel compelled to update their blog rolls. This is just something I have to do.

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Who's being naive? Yet more from J. Curry

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 09:43:34 -0500

One last look at Judith Curry, before I shut down the Island of Doubt and launch my new blog tomorrow. I, and many other climateers, remain fascinated by what she has to say, largely because we've never seen a respected climatologist be so publicly critical of her peers and so tolerant of the pseudoskeptics, but also because what she's talking about goes straight to the heart of the battle.

The latest volley comes in the form a comment at Keith Kloor's Collide-a-scape blog:

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Judith Curry doesn't let up

Tue, 27 Apr 2010 09:34:54 -0500

Seeing as the comments function is still unavailable here, I'll continue to point y'all elsewhere. The problem will resolved by this weekend, at which time I'll resume posting more original content.

Judith's Curry's now (in)famous Q and A with Keith Kloor continues to fascinate the blogosphere. Today, Stoat provides a more detailed, and even more critical response to her take on Wegman vs. NRC reports and other controversial subjects, and Curry herself provides more insight into her evolution from a standard bearer of anthropogenic global warming into a critic of the IPCC. A disillusioned Joe Romm also weighs in.

It's hard to know just what to make of it all. William Connelley's analysis is, as usual, near-impenetrable unless you've had the luxury of reading everything he's been reading, It does seem clear enough, though, that Curry has conflated more than a few contradictory items in the library. Her explanation of her personal journey also leave many questions answered. Most perplexing are her uncritical references to the Wegman report, which few outside the denial community take seriously. Her record as as scientist is beyond reproach, but her ventures into the blogosphere are something else entirely.

Confused or not, Curry does seem sincerely concerned about where climate science is headed. Here's the parting words of her latest thinking:

So the Judith Curry .ca 2010 is the same scientist as she was in 2003, but sadder and wiser as a result of the hurricane wars, a public spokesperson on the global warming issue owing to the media attention from the hurricane wars, more broadly knowledgeable about the global warming issue, much more concerned about the integrity of climate science, listening to skeptics, and a blogger (for better or for worse). So should Joe Romm be puzzled by this? Probably, but I think part of his puzzlement arises from assuming that I and all "warmist" climate researchers share his policy objectives. People really find it hard to believe that I don't have a policy agenda about climate change/energy (believe me, Roger Pielke Jr has tried very hard to smoke me out as a "stealth advocate"). Yes, I want clean green energy, economic development and "world peace". I have no idea how much climate change should be weighted in these kinds of policy decisions. I lack the knowledge, wisdom and hubris to think that anything I say or do should be of any consequence to climate/carbon/energy policy.

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Judith Curry sticks her neck out

Sat, 24 Apr 2010 15:48:58 -0500

There aren't too many working climate scientists out there arguing that the release of the University of East Anglia emails may end up being a good thing. But that seems to be what Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology is arguing. Over at Collide-a-scape, Keith Kloor has posted an email exchange with Curry, who lays out her problems with the state of climate science, the IPCC and a few individuals, ostensibly in hopes of generating some sincere soul-searching and reflection that results in improvements to both the climatology community and the way it communicates with the public.

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The challenge posed by coal

Fri, 23 Apr 2010 11:31:17 -0500

Renewable energy advocates like to trumpet the rapid growth rate of wind farms and solar power plants, and it's true. Installed wind capacity grew by almost 32 percent globally in 2009, according to on industry estimate. Capacity is now doubling every three years. That's a remarkable feat, considering how sluggish the world economy has been. But it's important to put such numbers in perspective.

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"Racing toward a cliff"

Thu, 22 Apr 2010 08:59:12 -0500

On the advent of this 40th Earth Day, nine climatologists from Germany take a look at the range of likely scenarios if we do nothing more to reduce the causes of global warming than is called for by what the world agreed to at Copenhagen last year. The bottom line:

"it is equivalent to racing towards a cliff and hoping to stop just before it."

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Earth Day Schmearth Day?

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 16:30:59 -0500

Nothing I could write on the subject of the corporatization of environmentalism can best this.

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Global warming, loose women, volcanoes and earthquakes

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 09:28:40 -0500

The idea that deglaciation could affect vulcanism is not new. For anyone who thinks that linking climate change to volcanic eruptions is a prime example of over-the-top alarmism, consider this look at the subject in New Scientist in 2006:

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It's like shooting ducks in a barrel

Fri, 16 Apr 2010 10:37:06 -0500

Another critical mass of climate change pseudoskeptics will be gathering today for an D.C. lunch event titled "The Climategate Scandals: What Has Been Revealed And What Does It Mean?" It features: Pat Michaels of the Cato Institute and Joseph D'Aleo of ICECAP and is being hosted by Ben Lieberman of the Heritage Foundation and Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

More on the speakers and hosts later, but first, let's look at the description of the event, which appears on the invitation reproduced by invitee Sheril "Intersection" Kirshenbaum:

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What do you want from a climate blog?

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 09:59:32 -0500

When I created the Island of Doubt five years ago, I was fascinated by the battle between science and irrationality. I had just moved to the U.S., it would be several months before my work permit would be granted, and I needed an outlet to keep my writing skills sharp. Inspired in no small part by Chris Mooney's Intersection blog, I began posting weekly ruminations on the what I consider to be the "betrayal of the Enlightenment" so evident in my new home and elsewhere. Within a year or so, however, I began to focus almost exclusively on just one species of reality-denial: climate change pseudoskepticism.

I remain convinced that the pace of climate change brought on by the combustion of fossil fuels is the most serious public policy challenge of our time. And I'm not the only one. Here's the result of a new survey of the world's science academies by New Scientist magazine. Respondents were asked to identify humanity's most pressing concerns.

While the Island of Doubt was been a modest success -- it was picked up by Scienceblogs after only a year, and recently made it into the top 20 science blogs as rated by Wikio -- I have of late felt the need for a change. For one thing, the name is a bit misleading. Science is characterized by an embrace of uncertainty and doubt, the name has tricked more than one denial-oriented blogger into adding the Island of Doubt into their blogrolls (hah), and the forces of irrationalism still keep me up at night. But I'd like to shift gears a bit in terms of the blog's focus.

The new blog, like this one, will concern itself with what science has to say about the suitability of planet Earth for human habitation. My intention is to restrict content to commentary and analysis of peer-reviewed science and to how the science is represented by mainstream and new media.

The way I see it, there is already an excellent blog dealing with the policy questions involved in dealing with climate change: Climate Progress. Several other members of the Scienceblogs collective -- Deltoid, A Few Things Ill Considered to name two -- do keep us up to date on some important climate science developments. But what is less common are blogs that regularly translate peer-reviewed science into more accessible language and provides a bit of context. Real Climate goes a long way down this road, but sometimes they need a little help getting out of the impenetrable jargon jungle. Stoat is always fun, but it's cryptic still often reads like an insider's blog that discourages wider circulation.

As a professional communicator with a science degree. I have some ideas on the nature of niche I'd like to fill, but I am open to suggestions. What are the elements you would like to see in a climatology-oriented blog? As the comment function on the Island is currently unavailable, you'll have to email me: jamesh (at) cyamid (dot) net.

Many a blogger has advised that abandoning a successful brand name is a poor business strategy, but this isn't a business, let alone an overwhelmingly successful one. So along with the new focus will come a new name, which will be unveiled upon its debut on April 30. I thank and apologize in advance to all of my colleagues who will feel compelled to update their blog rolls. The good news is anyone heading to The Island of Doubt for the foreseeable future will automatically be redirected to the new site, and there is no urgency in this regard.

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Quote of the day

Fri, 09 Apr 2010 09:20:08 -0500

From NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt, in the Washington Post, discussing the value of computer climate models:

If the models are as flawed as critics say, Schmidt said, "You have to ask yourself, 'How come they work?' "

Indeed. Also of note is a comment from someone who doesn't share Schmidt's confidence:

Warren Meyer, a mechanical and aerospace engineer by training who blogs at www.climate-skeptic.com, said that climate models are highly flawed. He said the scientists who build them don't know enough about solar cycles, ocean temperatures and other things that can nudge the earth's temperature up or down. He said that because models produce results that sound impressively exact, they can give off an air of infallibility.

Curiously, Meyer's lament about "impressively exact" model output appears just above a reference to the range of warming the IPCC says we can expect:

A 2007 United Nations report cited a range of estimates from 2 to 11.5 degrees over the next century.

Hmmm. Must be a use for the term "exact" with which I was not previously familiar.

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The economics of climate change

Thu, 08 Apr 2010 09:10:43 -0500

Paul Krugman's feature in the New York Times covers it all. If you haven't familiarized yourself with the subject, then find 15 minutes to read it. Worth noting: the debate between Krugman and James Hansen over the merits of cap and trade persists, but Krugman appears to at least grant Hansen recognition that burning coal will probably have to be restricted regardless of any market-based approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.

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The language of sacrifice

Wed, 24 Mar 2010 10:00:00 -0500

Fellow Scienceblogger Sharon "Casaubon's Book" Astyk warns us that the latest thinking on proximity to climate tipping points supports the premise that we can't make the transition to a post-carbon economy without surrendering some of that oh-so-sacred American way of life. At least, that the message I get from this:

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Jigsaw puzzle or house of cards? The Economist's take on climate change

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 10:26:21 -0500

The Economist's reputation as the intellectual's news outlet of choice is probably undeserved -- its questionable choice of correspondents and lack of bylines, heavy editing and conservative politics undermine it's credibility in my book -- but because it's widely read in elite circles, it's hard to ignore. So the magazine's feature treatment of climate science is worth looking at. I am pleased to report that, while The Economist may be a straggler when it came to embracing the science, it is now fully on board.

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The problem with Canada

Mon, 22 Mar 2010 10:44:29 -0500

Since I moved to North Carolina (five years ago next month), it's been depressing to watch the political climate there move ever closer to the one the U.S. managed to pull itself out of in 2008. The latest news, which concerns attempts by the federal government to silence its own climatologists, only reinforces that interpretation.

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